House Price Watch May 2024
House prices increased this month and transactions hit their highest level in 12 months. The supply of homes for sale is at an 8 year high -- running ahead of demand, this is likely to keep a check on house prices. With the General Election announced this month, experts do not foresee an impact on house prices or on those already underway with moving plans but with the element of uncertainty an election brings, it could dampen the number of newly agreed sales over the summer months.
What’s happening nationally
House prices are up on average +0.2% over the past month and +1.3% over the past year.
All of the indices except Halifax show house prices up over the past month. Land Registry (+0.3%), Nationwide (+0.4%) and Rightmove reporting asking prices (+0.8%). Halifax reports a slowing of house prices last month, down -0.1% in May. Annual house price growth is reported to be up by all the indices (ranging from a low of +0.6% by Rightmove to a high of +1.5% by Halifax.
Indices based on:
Land Registry – registered property transactions in April.
Nationwide & Halifax – mortgage valuations in May.
Rightmove – asking prices posted on Rightmove in May.
*Rightmove is not included in the index average as the basis for its index is different (asking price vs agreed sale price)
| Index reports: | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Land registry | +0.3% | +1.1% |
| Nationwide | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| Halifax | -0.1% | +1.5% |
| Rightmove | +0.8% | +0.6% |
| Average change | +0.2% | +1.3% |
House prices in your area
House prices increased in most areas of the UK over the past month with rises in: Scotland (+1.3%), Northern Ireland (+0.4%) and, in England, in the South East (+1.4%), the South West (+1.1%), East Midlands (+0.7%), the North West (+0.7%), the North East (+0.6%) and the West Midlands (+0.4%).
House prices fell over the past month in Wales (-2.1%), Yorkshire & Humber (-1.4%), East of England (-0.7%) and London (-0.2%).
Average house prices remain highest in London (£502K) and lowest in the North East (£158K).
In terms of monthly house price shifts by type of property, detached homes were up +0.3%, semi detached properties up +2.2%, terraced properties were up +1.6% and flats/ maisonettes held steady according to April Land Registry data.
| UK Region | Average price £ | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | |||
| Nothern Ireland | |||
| Scotland | |||
| Wales | |||
| North West | |||
| Yorkshire and The Humber | |||
| North East | |||
| West Midlands | |||
| East Midlands | |||
| South West | |||
| East of England | |||
| South East | |||
| London |
| UK City | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
Market Monitor
There were 90.4K transactions in April 2024, up 5% on March and 10% higher than April 2023. This marks a turning point for transactions which have been sitting under 90K for the past 12 months.
The recent recovery in demand has stalled this month with new buyer enquiries down but new instructions from sellers increased again. As a result the average stock per agent has also improved. Zoopla reports the highest level of homes for sale in eight years.
Time to sell has improved in recent months from a peak of 78 days in January to 60 days in May. This is still up from a year ago (55 days last May).
Now that a General Election has been called, the experts have started to analyse what impact they think this could have on house prices and activity. Nationwide data from previous elections shows that elections have little impact on house price trends. Both Rightmove and Zoopla do not expect the election announcement to impact on those already underway with their house moving plans but both suggest that elections normally lead to increased uncertainty and some stalling in market activity.
How busy is the market?
- Not busy
- Normal
- Very busy
- Agreed sales reported to be up 17% year on year. Completed transactions at highest level in 12 months.
- Total transactions in April 2024 90.4K
- +5% from last month
- +10% from April last year
Homes for sale vs homebuyers
- Good availability of homes
- Normal
- Shortage of homes
- Buyer enquiries down(-8% RICS); demand down from -1% last month
- Seller enquiries up (+16% RICS); fresh instructions improved for 6 consecutive months
- Average stock per agent 59; up from 56 last month (incl under offer/ Sold STC Rightmove). Zoopla reports 8 year high in supply of homes for sale.
Average speed of sale
- Fast
- Normal
- Slow
- 60 days to find a buyer down from peak of 78 days in January (up from 55 days last May, Rightmove)
What the experts say
Rightmove - agent's view
“The average price of property coming to the market reaches a new high as the momentum of the Spring selling season exerts some modest upwards price pressure. The market remains price-sensitive with average asking prices just 0.6% higher than a year ago. The top-of-the-ladder sector is still leading price growth. Pent-up demand from would-be buyers who paused their plans last year is a key driver behind increased home-mover activity despite mortgage rates remaining elevated for longer than anticipated. The number of sales agreed during the first four months of the year is 17% higher than last year, outstripping the 12% increase in the number of new sellers coming to market. Now that a General Election has been called, Rightmove’s data suggests activity is largely remaining stable. The number of sales being agreed and the number of buyers sending enquiries to agents remain steady, with the vast majority of those already in the market continuing with their plans.”
Nationwide
“The market appears to be showing signs of resilience in the face of ongoing affordability pressures following the rise in longer term interest rates in recent months. Consumer confidence has improved noticeably over the last few months supported by solid wage gains and lower inflation. With the recent announcement that the UK general election will take place on 4 July, we have analysed house price movements in the months around previous elections, and also the 2016 EU referendum. Past general elections do not appear to have generated volatility in house prices or resulted in a significant change in house price trends.”
Zoopla (Hometrack)
“There is a record high supply of homes for sale (the highest in 8 years) which shows renewed confidence among sellers, many of whom are also buyers. Note that a third of homes available for sale were also listed for sale in 2023 but failed to find a buyer. Greater choice will keep prices in check over 2024. The announcement of the general election came earlier than many expected. Elections normally lead to increased uncertainty and some stalling in market activity. The general election is likely to dampen the upward momentum in sales agreed, but committed buyers will continue to secure sales.”
Halifax
“UK house prices were largely static in May. Market activity remained resilient throughout the spring months, supported by strong nominal wage growth and some evidence of an improvement in confidence about the economic outlook. A period of relative stability in both house prices and interest rates should give a degree of confidence to both buyers and sellers.”
RICS
“The May 2024 RICS UK Residential Survey results are symptomatic of a slight setback for the sales market over the month, with most of the indicators tracked deteriorating to a certain extent. This appears to be linked to the recent scaling back in expectations around the degree of monetary policy loosening likely to be pushed through by the Bank of England during the second half this year. Nevertheless, respondents still foresee a modest recovery in residential sales volumes getting back on track over the months ahead.”
